Finance in Focus: Private Equity in Childcare and the Power of Simple Stock Forecasting Models

Machine learning is increasingly the default choice for data analysis, often regarded as the only solution. My talk argues for the value of incorporating simple, intuitive models when forecasting long term stock returns. I show that by focusing on manual optimization, simpler models can outperform automated machine learning methods. My findings highlight the critical role of human oversight in financial forecasting problems and challenge the assumption that automated approaches always deliver superior results.

What happened when private equity (PE) firms increasingly invest in childcare market? Our research reveals market shifts: rising prices, changing competitive landscapes, and evolving quality standards. I'll unpack how PE ownership is related to different childcare operations and explore the implications for parents, children, and policymakers. Join me to discover whether the business of childcare can balance profit motives with quality care in this essential but often overlooked market.